APPROACH TO THE WATER - FOOD NEXUS AND RAINFALL ESTIMATION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR THE BA RIVER BASIN

Phan Thị Thanh Hằng; Ngô Trà Mai

doi:10.34238/tnu-jst.12682

APPROACH TO THE WATER - FOOD NEXUS AND RAINFALL ESTIMATION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR THE BA RIVER BASIN

About this article

Received: 26/04/25 Revised: 15/07/25 Published: 15/07/25

Authors

1. Phan Thi Thanh Hang , Institute of Earth Sciences - Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology
2. Ngo Tra Mai, Institute of Physics - Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology

Abstract

The Ba river basin is the largest river basin in Central Vietnam and plays an important role in ensuring food security for the Central Highlands and the coastal areas of Central Vietnam. This study used the Mann–Kendall trend test, statistical methods, and GIS to analyze rainfall trends, the relationship between rainfall and crop yields, and to project rainfall in sub-basins under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 emission scenarios for the periods 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100. The results indicate that rainfall in the tropical basin is highly complex and makes it difficult to identify clear trends. Annual rainfall and the yields of food crops from 2012 to 2022 in the sub-basins show a generally increasing trend, except for winter-spring rice. Rainfall in the sub-basins is projected to increase toward the end of the 21^st century and under higher emission scenarios; however, the magnitude of this increase is relatively small. The findings of this study provide a scientific basis for optimizing crop structure and developing appropriate irrigation scenarios to ensure water and food security in the Ba river basin in the context of climate change.

Keywords

Ba river basin; CMIP6 emission scenarios; Crop yield; Climate change; Rainfall

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.34238/tnu-jst.12682

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